Utah Valley

Conference:	WAC
Expected RPI:	83.0
Current RPI:	83
Expected SOS:	134
Current SOS:	134
Current Record:	19-10
Expected Record:	19-10
Current Conf Record:	11-5
Expected Conf Record:	11-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	12-2
Current OOC Record:	8-5
Expected OOC Record:	8-5
Expected OOC RPI:	48
Expected OOC SOS:	56

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
19-10	83.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Utah Valley.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Kentucky (10.0)	SEC	A	73-63	L	0%
11-11	Duke (7.0)	ACC	A	99-69	L	0%
11-14	Idaho St. (268.0)	BSky	A	71-84	W	100%
11-18	UC Davis (102.0)	BW	H	80-71	W	100%
11-25	North Dakota (221.0)	BSky	A	75-83	W	100%
11-29	BYU (67.0)	WCC	H	58-85	L	0%
12-2	UTSA (187.0)	CUSA	H	88-80	W	100%
12-6	Weber St. (162.0)	BSky	H	83-56	W	100%
12-9	Cal St. Fullerton (131.0)	BW	A	91-83	L	0%
12-17	Hawaii (213.0)	BW	A	70-69	L	0%
12-22	Sam Houston St. (206.0)	Slnd	A	64-75	W	100%
12-28	UC Riverside (300.0)	BW	H	90-82	W	100%
12-30	Cal St. Fullerton (131.0)	BW	H	87-78	W	100%
1-6	Cal St. Bakersfield (220.0)	WAC	H	75-42	W	100%
1-11	UMKC (256.0)	WAC	H	95-59	W	100%
1-13	Chicago St. (335.0)	WAC	H	83-58	W	100%
1-18	UT Rio Grande Valley (229.0)	WAC	A	76-84	W	100%
1-20	New Mexico St. (35.0)	WAC	A	86-59	L	0%
1-27	Grand Canyon (156.0)	WAC	H	68-56	W	100%
2-3	Seattle (165.0)	WAC	A	55-54	L	0%
2-8	Chicago St. (335.0)	WAC	A	57-97	W	100%
2-10	UMKC (256.0)	WAC	A	77-70	L	0%
2-15	New Mexico St. (35.0)	WAC	H	86-79	W	100%
2-17	UT Rio Grande Valley (229.0)	WAC	H	84-72	W	100%
2-22	Cal St. Bakersfield (220.0)	WAC	A	47-70	W	100%
2-24	Grand Canyon (156.0)	WAC	A	60-59	L	0%
3-3	Seattle (165.0)	WAC	H	73-47	W	100%
3-8	Cal St. Bakersfield (220.0)	WAC	N	81-74	W	100%
3-9	Grand Canyon (156.0)	WAC	N	60-75	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Utah Valley's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Utah Valley's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Utah Valley.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Utah Valley	WAC	26.54	26.54	69.75	69.75	10.48	10.48
Grand Canyon	WAC	6.09	6.09	65.52	65.52	1.89	1.89
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	5.91	5.91	37.50	37.50	-1.48	-1.48
New Mexico St.	WAC	4.46	4.46	85.71	85.71	3.19	3.19
Seattle	WAC	4.44	4.44	57.14	57.14	0.63	0.63
UMKC	WAC	4.34	4.34	25.93	25.93	-2.09	-2.09
Chicago St.	WAC	4.32	4.32	3.57	3.57	-4.01	-4.01
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	4.32	4.32	46.43	46.43	-0.31	-0.31
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	3.66	3.66	62.96	62.96	0.95	0.95
UC Riverside	BW	2.13	2.13	25.00	25.00	-1.06	-1.06
UC Davis	BW	2.05	2.05	68.97	68.97	0.78	0.78
Hawaii	BW	1.99	1.99	51.85	51.85	0.07	0.07
Idaho St.	BSky	1.93	1.93	44.44	44.44	-0.21	-0.21
North Dakota	BSky	1.88	1.88	34.48	34.48	-0.58	-0.58
Weber St.	BSky	1.87	1.87	62.96	62.96	0.48	0.48
BYU	WCC	1.79	1.79	69.70	69.70	0.70	0.70
Duke	ACC	1.72	1.72	78.12	78.12	0.97	0.97
Kentucky	SEC	1.72	1.72	69.70	69.70	0.68	0.68
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	1.72	1.72	53.57	53.57	0.12	0.12
UTSA	CUSA	1.72	1.72	55.17	55.17	0.18	0.18
UC Irvine	BW	0.50	0.50	48.48	48.48	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.36	0.36	14.29	14.29	-0.26	-0.26
Long Beach St.	BW	0.36	0.36	41.94	41.94	-0.06	-0.06
Idaho	BSky	0.34	0.34	68.97	68.97	0.13	0.13
Cal Poly	BW	0.30	0.30	24.14	24.14	-0.15	-0.15
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.30	0.30	70.00	70.00	0.12	0.12
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.27	0.27	61.29	61.29	0.06	0.06
Georgia Southern	SB	0.25	0.25	61.29	61.29	0.06	0.06
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.25	0.25	84.85	84.85	0.17	0.17
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.25	0.25	13.33	13.33	-0.18	-0.18
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.24	0.24	16.67	16.67	-0.16	-0.16
San Diego	WCC	0.21	0.21	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Portland St.	BSky	0.21	0.21	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.20	0.20	30.77	30.77	-0.08	-0.08
UTEP	CUSA	0.20	0.20	33.33	33.33	-0.07	-0.07
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.20	0.20	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.18	0.18	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.18	0.18	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.18	0.18	36.67	36.67	-0.05	-0.05
Montana	BSky	0.18	0.18	77.42	77.42	0.10	0.10
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.18	0.18	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Portland	WCC	0.17	0.17	24.14	24.14	-0.09	-0.09
Montana St.	BSky	0.15	0.15	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
California	P12	0.15	0.15	25.81	25.81	-0.07	-0.07
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.14	0.14	60.71	60.71	0.03	0.03
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.14	0.14	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Illinois	B10	0.14	0.14	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Pacific	WCC	0.14	0.14	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Louisville	ACC	0.13	0.13	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Fresno St.	MWC	0.13	0.13	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.12	0.12	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
UCLA	P12	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Bradley	MVC	0.12	0.12	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.12	0.12	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
USC	P12	0.12	0.12	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
New Mexico	MWC	0.11	0.11	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
North Texas	CUSA	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.11	0.11	17.24	17.24	-0.08	-0.08
Miami FL	ACC	0.11	0.11	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Pepperdine	WCC	0.11	0.11	16.13	16.13	-0.08	-0.08
Little Rock	SB	0.11	0.11	20.00	20.00	-0.07	-0.07
Georgia	SEC	0.11	0.11	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
St. John's	BE	0.11	0.11	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	12.50	12.50	-0.08	-0.08
Gonzaga	WCC	0.10	0.10	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
Arizona	P12	0.10	0.10	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
Delaware	CAA	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.09	0.09	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.09	0.09	12.50	12.50	-0.07	-0.07
Davidson	A10	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.09	0.09	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.09	0.09	10.71	10.71	-0.07	-0.07
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.09	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Texas St.	SB	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Washington	P12	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
South Dakota	Sum	0.09	0.09	73.33	73.33	0.04	0.04
Troy	SB	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
UT Arlington	SB	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Boise St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	73.33	73.33	0.04	0.04
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.08	0.08	24.24	24.24	-0.04	-0.04
Longwood	BSth	0.08	0.08	13.33	13.33	-0.06	-0.06
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.08	0.08	71.43	71.43	0.03	0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Florida	SEC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.08	0.08	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.08	0.08	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Nevada	MWC	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.06	0.06	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.06	0.06	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
Manhattan	MAAC	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
New Orleans	Slnd	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Penn	Ivy	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
USC Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.05	-0.05
Wichita St.	Amer	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Belmont	OVC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Drake	MVC	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.06	0.06	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Horz	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Purdue	B10	0.06	0.06	82.35	82.35	0.04	0.04
Saint Louis	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
SMU	Amer	0.06	0.06	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
UMBC	AE	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Utah	P12	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Utah St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
LSU	SEC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
San Jose St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
College of Charleston	CAA	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	8.00	8.00	-0.02	-0.02
Valparaiso	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Charlotte	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	BE	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
FIU	CUSA	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Elon	CAA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Syracuse	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Monmouth	MAAC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	44.12	44.12	-0.00	-0.00
Vermont	AE	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01